Coming up:

I love rebuilding in dynasty leagues.

Obviously, we play the game to win, and of course it’s difficult to stack championships while attempting to fix a broken team. But, the process of turning a trash lineup into a fantasy juggernaut is hard to beat. It’s not too different from those bitcoin traders who hit gold and started telling all their friends to invest in crypto before its value skyrocketed.

“Euphoric,” was the term my buddy used to try and get me into Dogecoin.

Maybe I should have listened, tossed a couple hundred bucks into it, hit it big, cashed out.

Maybe I wouldn’t be writing this now…

The scenarios are endless.

Anywho…

Rebuilding. It’s great.

Generally, the crux of this amazing scenario is the acquisition and effective capitalization of draft picks.

So, I wanted to know, how valuable are draft picks, actually?

I looked at 1QB rookie ADP (average draft position) over the last three years to see how many of those picks became “hits” for fantasy football.

I concluded 18/36 first round picks were “hits.” (Kyle Pitts and Javonte Williams have been considered hits and misses at different points in their career value-wise, but it hasn’t really been confirmed yet. So they combine for one “hit” between the two of them)

50%. That’s how often a first round rookie pick is an every-week starting player in your lineup.

Yikes.

For every Jaylen Waddle and JaMarr Chase, there’s a Trey Sermon, a Quentin Johnston, a guy so bad you effectively light that pick on fire and pretend it never happened so your league-mates don’t make fun of you.

So, if rookie picks are a coin flip, why on earth do we get so excited when we empty out our roster’s cupboard to acquire 5 firsts? After all, on average, only 2 or 3 of those picks will turn into a player we can even use.

What if there was another way, a better way? A strategy of draft pick acquisition that cuts out the guesswork entirely, a strategy that turns a 50% hit rate into an 88% hit rate?

Buckle up, my friend. Prepare to rarely miss on your rookie picks.

Are you ready?

I’m calling this strategy the Tush Push, because it’s effective almost 92% of the time. If we round up a little. 😁

Here’s how it works:

Obviously, the entire first round includes picks 1-12. And those picks hit at a 50% rate. But if we narrow our focus to picks 1-3, those picks hit at a 88% rate. (8/9 since 2020) 

Here’s what I'm proposing: only make a pick if it’s top-3. (Top-3 in 1QB. Adjust to top-5 in SuperFlex for a similar outcome) 

If you have picks outside the top 3, there’s two options, either package multiple picks and trade into the top 3, or trade those firsts for veterans who have already hit for fantasy.

Step 1: Acquire the picks

Yes, you’ve still got to empty out your proverbial cupboard. The process before your rookie draft remains unchanged. Trade productive veterans to competing teams, send away players at peak value, etc. That process is its own newsletter.

Step 2: Once the Pick Value is locked…Hold

You’ll know where your picks slot in once the fantasy season is over. When that moment comes, and you see what your beautiful work has created, wait. 

Wait until mid-March or early April, when rookie fever hits its most obnoxious pitch, when everyone is high on rookie hopium. 

Then you strike. 

Step 3: Trade, and Trade Well

Trade your non top-3 picks in 1QB, and your non top-5 picks in SF for players you can start today. Trade at peak value. Don’t trade cheap. 

No, you won’t get to brag about hitting on DeVon Achane or Puka Nacua, BUT, if you are sharp about it, you can trade low on those players before their value spikes. (again, another newsletter topic there)

Imagine this: instead of drafting Quentin Johnston in SuperFlex, you could have had Dak Prescott. (Yes, that’s not a joke.)

This year, the 1.06 in SF leagues is valued the same as Jonathan Taylor. That 1.06 could hit in a MAJOR way. But it also could miss in a major way. You know who has already hit? Jonathan Taylor. The power of possible outcomes is that you can always spin the positive option to turn it into an assured outcome for your lineup.

Follow this simple process and you’ll be just as effective drafting valuable fantasy assets as Jalen Hurts is at vulturing rushing touchdowns.

If you refer to the graph above, you’ll see the lifetime value of a rookie pick. It shows that a rookie pick (in this case a 2025 1st) will gain roughly 80% more value before this time next year.

That’s just any ole 1st, though. The 1.01 is a different animal. The 1.01 will accrue even more value as fantasy players get increasingly excited about the top player. (Marvin Harrison, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, JaMarr Chase, Breece Hall, etc)

There will come a time, (right now, for the ‘24 class) when the 1.01 will skyrocket in value, and godfather offers start floating around.

If you have the 1.01, you can either keep it, and likely draft a stud, OR, you can capitalize on the massive value of the POTENTIAL of that pick, and trade it for a HAUL.

(Spoiler: If you get a big enough offer, it's probably a good idea to move the pick. But no pressure, as the player taken with the 1.01 since 2020 has a 100% of at least one top-10 season)

Wrapup.

Rookie picks are a blast. They aren’t players, so they never lose value, they only gain it. Which is why acquiring them is always a good fantasy investment.

But, once you turn those picks into players, they can plummet in value, because player value is ever-changing.

Sharp fantasy players will manipulate pick value to dominate their leagues.

Thing of the Week

Want a trade barometer for nearly every major fantasy football asset? Dynasty Dad on Twitter has you covered.

These sorts of player-value-threads are always really helpful because it gives you a measuring stick for player value, while not having to consult Keep Trade Cut (which is a big W in my book)