1D/RR…What is it?

First Downs Per Route Run. It might be the new Yards Per Route Run, which gained steam as a predictive fantasy football stat a few years ago. In theory, Yards Per Route Run correlated really well with overall receiving yards.

And for the most part, it does. The top players in the NFL score really well in YPRR. But, I think I’ve found (or Ryan Heath has found) a stat that can be used in combination with YPRR to give us the edge on our league mates: 1D/RR

Looking at the chart above, the top performers in Fantasy Points Per Game (PPR) popped up as leaders in YPRR and 1D/RR. Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb, etc, all dominated.

Bottom line, when we’re predicting fantasy outcomes, we can’t get all the way there using analytical data. But what we can do is try and find trends in the data that inform how we project player success.

There’s outliers here just like with a lot of data sets:

Brandon Aiyuk crushed in these metrics (6th in YPRR, 6th in 1D/RR) but wasn’t a top 12 WR for fantasy. (He finished at WR17 in PPG)

If we dive deeper into the context for where his fantasy points came from, he only scored 7 times, and was targeted just 105 times.

Keenan Allen had his most efficient season as a pro, scoring 7 times in just 13 games. He was WR2 in PPG, while being 10th & 12th in YPRR and 1D/RR.

The Takeaway:

I’m looking at Jaylen Waddle & Rashee Rice as two players that could take a step forward next season. 

Waddle dealt with injuries in 2023, and was understandably disappointing for fantasy. In 2022, he finished as a top 10 WR, putting up 1300+ yards. He was 2022’s version of 2023 Brandon Aiyuk. 

But, on Keep Trade Cut, he’s down at WR14. A clear buy window has opened up for him now in dynasty. He finished 8th in YPRR and 9th in 1D/RR in 2023. Whatever happened to affect his final fantasy output, he still produced when healthy, and we should value him closer to the way we did just one year ago.

Rice improved so much as 2023 went on, eventually becoming Patrick Mahomes’ WR1.  He ended up 19th in YPRR, but 10th in 1D/RR. He’s trending as a type of player that could maintain his role (maybe even expand it) despite the Chiefs signing Marquise Brown in free agency. 

Marquise Brown is not coming for Rice’s job–at least the numbers indicate that would be a surprising outcome. Brown was 37th in 1D/RR on a bad Cardinals offense last year. He’s going to add another element to the Chiefs’ offense, but Rice and Travis Kelce are going to maintain their middle-of-the-field dominance that they established in 2023.

Extra Point:

A name to watch is Dontayvion Wicks.

He led all Green Bay WRs in 1D/RR, at 19th. Jayden Reed was 32nd, Romeo Doubs was outside the top 38, and so was Christian Watson.

The Green Bay passing pie has a lot of guys holding forks, waiting to be fed. Reed, Doubs, Watson, Wicks, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, and Bo Melton all showed flashes of brilliance with Jordan Love last year.

Of the three WRs, Wicks is priced the cheapest on Keep Trade Cut, at WR55. There’s a very real chance that in a crowded offense, Wicks is the best value. 

Wrapup.

Sharp fantasy players will use YPRR and 1D/RR in combination to find future fantasy studs. The names that pop up initially are Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dontayvion Wicks, Jaylen Waddle, and Rashee Rice.

I would be looking to acquire all of those guys at their current dynasty cost.

Thing of the Week

JJ Zachiarison dropped this thread on weighting draft capital in our prospecting efforts.

Obviously, early draft capital is king, but there’s a bit more nuance to predicting fantasy success than slapping a binary value on early capital. Zachiarison gets into it in this thread: